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Thoughts on the 2024 election
Thought 1 – an Opportunity for thinker status
There were four basic outcomes to the election to wit
- Trump wins Electoral vote – wins Popular vote
- Trump wins Electoral vote – loses Popular vote
- Harris wins Electoral vote – wins Popular vote
- Harris wins Electoral vote – loses Popular vote
I would greatly upgrade my opinion of any thinker who published essays on how each particular outcome happened the day before the election. The current Monday morning quarterbacking is getting a little silly.
Thought 2 – Legibility
It seems that with the current wealth of data available on the country at large and demographic groups in particular, the electorate is actually getting less legible, particularly the not as online parts of the electorate. This advantages a more instinctive, intuitive style of politics, i.e. Trump. The side that relies more on quantitative data will be further away from the voter’s concerns than the side that goes with their gut.
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Watching over the polling place
I thought this was nice – it was across the street from the polls
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Election day 2024 – posted before voting
I ran out of time to post my best cases for voting for Trump or Harris – the gist is something like…
The best case for Trump – baselines matter (regarding Foreign Policy most of all) – and so do appointees.
The best case for Harris – she managed to escape the primary process, and appears to be an entirely empty vessel ideologically, which I posit means that she will go with whatever the standard centrist conventional wisdom will be, while not being beholden to primary voters which is probably a good thing.
Those are the single two best cases I can make for each (I can come up with others upon request). Either way I think we’ll be fine.
