Election 2020
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Election 2020 predictions
My current thoughts are that Biden takes it – by a slight margin – less than what is currently predicted.
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The best cases for Trump and Biden
For Trump:
- Regulation – it’s down, hopefully that will continue
- Pushback against the lockdown everywhere urge. A nuanced view is the one to have, Trump seems to come closest to that, depressingly.
- Foreign Policy – Trump is the most peaceful president since Jimmy Carter – which is of great surprise
- A profound lack of ambition and desire for a place in history – mixed with decline in energy due to age means that the pros/deep state are in charge – we’ve survived that for quite a while.
For Biden
- State capacity
- Should Biden be elected then the American effort will become a giant success, and the lockdown efforts can get a bit more intelligent
- A general cooling down of mood
- Similar to #4 above decline in energy due to age means that the pros/deep state are in charge – we’ve survived that for quite a while.
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Andrew Yang – and Yangvective
From an email exchange with a friend – here is how I categorized him
Yang reads as a hacker news comments section come to life – Well written, well intentioned writing by someone who is an expert in some other field…
He’s pleasantly free of identity politics, but seems to have no problems making decisions for other people in great detail. He is living proof of Bryan Caplan’s definition of a progressive of someone who has a hatred of anything that isn’t planned. He does not draw the anger of conservatives to any degree.