Predictions
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Things I don’t believe in
A list of things I don’t believe in, for no reason other than I find their proponents objectionable, or sensationalistic.
- Intelligent Design theory
- Global Warming
- Public education reform
- Keyboards in rock music
- Authenticity as a meaningful part of music
- McCarthyism being a defining moment of American History
- Native American culture being inherently earth friendly
- Anything to do with “carbs”
- Apple’s vaunted OS stability
- Apple’s better “interface”
- Any positive influence of Janis Joplin
- The oft-touted claim by libertarians that 20% of Americans are libertarian also
- “Natural” foods
- Homeopathy
- Divorce being a public/social problem
- Stem cell research being a big deal, for good or ill
- Biomass fuels
- Peak oil
- Addictive personalities
- Chiropractors
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Someone is finally doing this
I’ve often wondered why we don’t have simple home medical testing kits for the most common problems one is likely to have. Just do a simple blood or urine sample at home once a month, and then send it off to be analyzed for the 15 most common (or cheapest to test for) illnesses and you’re much more likely to catch something early. I would imagine legal liabilities are the likely culprit.
It would seem that they’re doing something like this in Japan.
I predict that this will be a condition of health insurance in the future.
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An interesting article on demographics
While I disagree with him about the value of absolute number in military conflict (that has become increasingly less meaningful over time, particularly in the past 100 years) It’s a very interesting read, and falls into my own general meme that self-selection is the dominant force in our society.
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Quick roundup
- It’s depressing that two senators don’t realize how off they are. If you want to characterize the Republican majority in the House of Representatives negatively, then the proper term is fascism (taken literally, strength in numbers, and a dictatorship thereof) rather than a plantation, the relevant characteristic being oppression of the many by the few. All to work in a racial angle I suppose.
- Tom MacGuire has more interesting thoughts on the NSA wiretapping thing. Still, why not change the law though?
- An interesting post from the Belmont Club “A stone killer is never idle in a lawless Third World country”
- America’s possible action on Iran:. Evidently some lessons were learned from the lack of immediate American response to Afghanistan after 9-11.
- The Great War of 2007 – very scary possible history.
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Prediction
While taking a short break from coding I saw the article Leaders urge calm if Williams dies on CNN.com and was stuck by two thing:
- “Dies”? He is due to be executed by the state, and they use the broadest term possible. A lame and evasive headline.
- What calamity has been correctly predicted recently? There were warnings of mass anti-semitism after Mel Gibson’s movie, warning of 10,000 or more dead after Katrina, an economic recession due to high gas prices and so on. Here’s a question: what calamity have the pundits in the media correctly predicted beforehand? They seem to have enough problems predicting the past.
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Prediction
Bush will nominate Janice Rogers Brown to take over the Sandra Day O’Connor slot. Three names must replace 3 names. Also she’s a black woman, and pleasantly libertarian as well.
You heard it here first. I also think she will be announced right after Roberts is confirmed.
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20 Predictions
Bearing in mind the Pundit’s Fallacy, here they are:
- Iran will work itself out fairly peacefully.
- Executions will increase in the US as people realize that DNA testing and soon to be omnipresent surveillance makes it ever more likely to be executing the right person.
- Surveillance cameras will proliferate, people will complain, but they will not alter their behavior at all.
- Animal right and environmental groups will turn violent.
- As the legacy of campaign finance reform grows ever uglier, term limits for politicians will make a comeback.
- Social Security will not be altered in the next five years. It will transform into a general welfare programs for the elderly in 15 years
- Marijuana will be legalized on the state or county level as a tax product when some interest group like education or seniors discovers a way to exclusively reap the tax receipts.
- Jews will leave Europe for America and Israel.
- Saudi Arabia will become increasingly isolated in the world.
- China will buy or “assume responsibility” for part of Siberia.
- Japan will change it’s constitution to re-arm itself.
- India will overtake China as the dominant Asian economy, though China will be a very significant player.
- Chechnya and Russia resume their very ugly war.
- Indian Medical Vacations kick off the start of a thriving global medical treatment market as people travel to lower cost medical treatment. Also a domestic medical black market will develop for surgery and treatment.
- While their democracy holds the Palestinians don’t accomplish much. On the other hand, the Lebanese will thrive.
- The US government will forcibly medicate all of it’s prisoners with mood altering and tranquilizing drugs.
- The battle over abortion will be overtaken by legal fights over decisions made at the beginning and end of life.
The beginning of life will start with prohibitions on smoking by pregnant women, unapproved prenatal care, etc and will end with genetic testing and an “approved” lifestyle for pregnant women.
The end of life fight will begin when government picks up more than 80% of the cost of health care and someone discovers the disproportionate amount spent on health care for the last few months of life. The right to die question becomes the number one question at this point.
- Many forms of congenital birth defects and diseases vanish from the population as genetic testing improves and people selectively abort non-optimum fetuses. This will have the unintended consequence of a vicious generational conflict down the road.
- Higher energy prices prompt a move to nuclear power and the importance of Middle Eastern oil is diminished slightly.
- The EU will be largely irrelevant, the UK and Eastern nations will eventually move away from binding commitments to the larger whole..